IPL 2016, last playoff spot – RR hold advantage; four other teams in the race

KKR and PBKS can reach upto 15 points. (PC: BCCI)

The league stage is nearing its end, and the final playoff spot is still up for grabs. Five teams remain in contention. However, Rajasthan Royals’ (RR) victory in their last game has significantly dented Delhi Capitals’ (DC) chances of progressing to the next stage. DC are still mathematically alive, but in reality, it has now become a four-way race. The battle for the top-two spots is also heating up, but all eyes are on these five teams and which one among them can book a place in the knockouts.

RR: RR are currently the best-placed side to qualify. Last night’s win in Jaipur would have given them plenty of confidence heading into their final game against Mumbai Indians (MI). If they win that match, they will qualify directly, regardless of the margin of victory.

However, if RR lose their final game against MI, they will remain stuck on 14 points. That would leave them vulnerable to being overtaken by Punjab Kings (PBKS), who can move to 15 points with a win over Lucknow Super Giants (LSG), and Kolkata Knight Riders (KKR). KKR can also reach 15 points if they beat both MI and DC. For RR to still qualify on 14 points without relying on net run rate, several results would need to go in their favour. PBKS would have to lose to LSG, KKR would need to lose to MI before defeating DC, and Chennai Super Kings (CSK) would have to lose to Gujarat Titans (GT). In that scenario, both PBKS and KKR would finish on 13 points, while CSK and DC would end on 12, allowing RR to sneak through.

KKR: The three-time champions have staged an impressive comeback after a forgettable first half of the tournament. Their equation is straightforward — win their remaining two games, both of which will be played at home, and hope PBKS lose to LSG. KKR would also want RR to lose their final game. The positive for KKR is that they do not have to travel and will play both matches in familiar conditions, giving them a strong chance of reaching 15 points.

PBKS: No team has fallen away from the summit quite like PBKS. Their net run rate of +0.027 leaves them fifth on the points table, and that could prove decisive if they finish level on 15 points with KKR. Although their final game is against LSG, it will not be straightforward given PBKS’ recent performances and the conditions they will face.

CSK: If CSK manage to win their final league game, they will move to 14 points, level with RR and potentially DC if DC beat KKR. However, those calculations will become irrelevant if PBKS defeat LSG or if KKR win both of their remaining fixtures. Should qualification come down to net run rate, CSK would need to finish with at least a 25-run advantage over RR while both teams remain tied on 14 points. On the other hand, a defeat to GT would officially end CSK’s campaign.

DC: The Capitals are effectively out of the race. Even if they reach the 14-point mark, their poor net run rate makes qualification highly unlikely, even if other results go in their favour.

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